The US House of Representatives will pass cryptocurrency market-structure legislation by January 13, 2027.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-15 at 30% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-13.

The Crypto Regulatory Clarity game-theory scenario identifies comprehensive US legislation as the likely policy strategy. Passage within this deadline remains speculative.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Jan 13in 90d
Made: Oct 15

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its October 2026 meeting.

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Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will publicly announce a naval exercise in the Persian Gulf by October 28, 2026.

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The US Commerce Department will publish a new restriction on exports of advanced semiconductors to China by November 13, 2026.

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The US House of Representatives will pass cryptocurrency market-structure legislation by January 13, 2027.

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