Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will publicly announce a naval exercise in the Persian Gulf by October 28, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-14 at 49% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-28.

Derived from: the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian assessment's 67% escalation probability and the IRGC actor-intelligence entry. Neither source establishes a chokepoint closure.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 28in 14d
Made: Oct 14

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will publicly announce a naval exercise in the Persian Gulf by October 28, 2026.

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