The US Department of Justice will file a court request seeking the divestiture of a Google business by January 10, 2027.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-12 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-10.

Derived from: the Big Tech Antitrust Showdown game-theory scenario in which the US pursues a breakup. The scenario does not identify a filing date or a specific remedy, warranting low confidence.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Jan 10in 89d
Made: Oct 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Associated Press will project Republicans to control the US Senate following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

geopolitical38%

The Associated Press will project Democrats to win control of the US House of Representatives following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

geopolitical35%

North Korea will conduct a short-range ballistic-missile launch reported by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff by October 25, 2026.

geopolitical10%

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The US Department of Justice will file a court request seeking the divestiture of a Google business by January 10, 2027.

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