The Associated Press will project Republicans to control the US Senate following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-12 at 38% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-11.

Derived from: the active signal identifying November 3 as the US midterm-election date. No Senate polling or race-level evidence is supplied, limiting confidence.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 11in 28d
Made: Oct 12

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Associated Press will project Democrats to win control of the US House of Representatives following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

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The Associated Press will project Republicans to control the US Senate following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

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