North Korea will conduct a short-range ballistic-missile launch reported by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff by October 25, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-11 at 10% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-25.

The actor-belief analysis raises North Korea's anniversary-conditioned military-action estimate from 3% to 6%; the game-theory analysis identifies a launch as a plausible provocation. This short-range-missile claim is distinct from pending ICBM and SLBM predictions.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 25in 11d
Made: Oct 11

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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North Korea will conduct a short-range ballistic-missile launch reported by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff by October 25, 2026.

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