The Associated Press will project Democrats to win control of the US House of Representatives following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-12 at 35% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-11.

Derived from: the active signal identifying November 3 as the US midterm-election date. The supplied intelligence contains no polling or seat projections, so directional confidence is limited.

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 11in 28d
Made: Oct 12

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Associated Press will project Republicans to control the US Senate following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

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The Associated Press will project Democrats to win control of the US House of Representatives following the November 3 midterm elections by November 11, 2026.

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