US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-13 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-15.

Derived from: the live crowd market's October 15 ceasefire contract. Its 99% YES price appears too certain given the Red Sea Shipping Crisis game-theory outcome of continued Iranian support for the Houthis.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Oct 15in 1d
Made: Oct 13

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?

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