Derived from: the US-China Trade War Bayesian assessment's collapsed Fearon bargaining range. Its stated escalation probability is 0%, limiting confidence in a near-term restriction.

Probability: 17%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 13in 30d
Made: Oct 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The US Department of Justice will file a court request seeking the divestiture of a Google business by January 10, 2027.

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