The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its October 2026 meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-15 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-29.

Mirrors the crowd-market question resolving October 29. The crowd assigns a 28% probability to a 25-basis-point increase, while the Fed Rate Cycle Pivot scenario favors a hawkish hold.

Probability

28%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 29in 14d

Made

Oct 15

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.