Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-19 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-28.

Derived from: the live Israel–Iran–Hezbollah–Hamas intelligence entry and the corresponding crowd market, which prices this outcome at 0%. The supplied intelligence offers no specific evidence of an imminent leadership change.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 9 days
Deadline: Oct 28in 9d
Made: Oct 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Philippine Coast Guard will publicly report a collision involving one of its vessels and a Chinese government vessel in the South China Sea by November 18, 2026.

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The US House of Representatives will pass cryptocurrency market-structure legislation by January 13, 2027.

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Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

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