HYG will close below $76.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 79% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Risk-off regime confirmation (Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ deep oversold with negative MACD momentum) combined with US Treasury Supply Crisis Bayesian equilibrium (fragile, term premium demand rising) implies credit spread widening pressure on high-yield paper.

Probability: 79%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 25

Price Target$76.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

HYG will close at least 1.4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $77.00).

market85%

HYG (iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

HYG will close above $80.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market48%MISS