HYG will close below $76.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 79% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.
Risk-off regime confirmation (Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ deep oversold with negative MACD momentum) combined with US Treasury Supply Crisis Bayesian equilibrium (fragile, term premium demand rising) implies credit spread widening pressure on high-yield paper.
- Probability
- 79%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 9in 10d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.