MISSBrier 0.189

Data-resolved: HYG moved from 78.81 to 77.89 (-1.16%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: below 77.8. Target not reached. Low was 77.85.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

SHORT correctHYG

HYG (iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 43% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.189.

Deepening wartime risk-off conditions and technical capitulation in equities (SPY/QQQ RSI sub-30) typically precede credit-spread widening; threshold set moderately below current $78.81 rather than the previously denied extreme $75.00 target.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$77.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

HYG will close above $80.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market48%MISS

HYG will close below $77.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market29%MISS

High-yield credit ETF HYG will close below $77.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds against the backdrop of the 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score.

market44%MISS

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HYG (iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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