Credit stress channel from the Fed hawkish-surprise scenario and the US Treasury Supply Crisis narrow bargaining range (38%) argues for high-yield spread widening under the confirmed risk-off regime.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 25d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$77

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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HYG will close below $77.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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