HITBrier 0.023

Early-confirmed: HYG, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-24 through 2026-10-24. Target: below 77. Target hit on: 2026-10-01. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 2, 2026

Market

SHORTHYG

HYG will close at least 1.4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $77.00).

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-02. Brier score 0.023.

Credit stress channel from the Fed hawkish-surprise scenario and the US Treasury Supply Crisis narrow bargaining range (38%) argues for high-yield spread widening under the confirmed risk-off regime.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 10d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$77

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

HYG will close below $76.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market79%MISS

HYG (iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

HYG will close above $80.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market48%MISS

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HYG will close at least 1.4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $77.00).

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