MISSBrier 0.231

Data-resolved: HYG moved from 79.19 to 78.68 (-0.65%) during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-22. Target: above 80. Target not reached. High was 79.24.

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

LONG wrongHYG

HYG will close above $80.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 48% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.231.

Cross-asset consistency with the equity mean-reversion thesis (SPY/QQQ bounce cases): if oversold equities stage a technical recovery, high-yield credit should track risk-on sentiment, opposing the pending bearish HYG-below-$75 claim which failed to materialize in the prior window.

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$80

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

HYG will close below $77.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market29%MISS

High-yield credit ETF HYG will close below $77.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds against the backdrop of the 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score.

market44%MISS

HYG (iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

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HYG will close above $80.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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