MISSBrier 0.192

Data-resolved: HYG moved from 79.16 to 78.53 (-0.80%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 77. Target not reached. Low was 78.36.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctHYG

High-yield credit ETF HYG will close below $77.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds against the backdrop of the 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.192.

Derived from: 80% escalation risk score, risk-off regime confirmation (F&G 38), prior HYG credit-stress thesis extended to a fresh price threshold.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$77

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

HYG will close below $77.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market29%MISS

HYG will close above $80.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market48%MISS

HYG (iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

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High-yield credit ETF HYG will close below $77.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime credit stress builds against the backdrop of the 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score.

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