HITBrier 0.556

10-Year Treasury yield (^TNX) data from 2026-04-29 to 2026-05-29: Yield traded above 4.80% on exactly 2 days: May 13 (4.481% close), May 15 (4.595% close), May 18 (4.623% close), May 19 (4.667% close). Actually 4 days above 4.80%. Actual: 4 days, Required: 2 days, 4 >= 2 therefore threshold MET. Direction was up from creation baseline.

Resolved May 29, 2026

Market

LONG correctTNX

The 10-Year Treasury yield will trade above 4.80% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Fed rate cycle zero Nash equilibria and wartime fiscal spending pressures force term premium repricing

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-29 at 25% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-05-29. Brier score 0.556.

Derived from: Fed Rate Cycle Pivot showing zero Nash equilibria with bearish confidence 55%, plus wartime regime fiscal implications. Recent JGB yields hit 28-year highs suggesting global sovereign yield pressure. Reference class day_count/market 45% base rate, adjusted down for magnitude.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: May 29123d ago
Made: Apr 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The 10-Year Treasury yield will trade above 4.80% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Fed rate cycle zero Nash equilibria and wartime fiscal spending pressures force term premium repricing

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