MISSBrier 0.518

TNX data unavailable from market price API (returned 0). Web search found Wolf Street article dated March 20, 2026 stating '10-Year to 4.39%'. Actual: 4.39%, Required: 4.75%, 4.39 < 4.75 therefore threshold NOT met. Only found one data point showing yields below target.

Resolved Mar 24, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTNX

The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) will close above 4.75% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Assessment Window creates safe haven demand competing with inflation concerns

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-24. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: MOVE Index 130 threshold signal and Iran Assessment Window creating Treasury volatility; OPEC production scenario modeling supply tightening creates inflation pressure competing with safe haven flows

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$4.75

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

10-Year Treasury yield (TNX) will trade above 4.25% on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime fiscal expansion expectations override safe-haven demand

market41%HIT

The 10-Year Treasury yield will trade above 4.80% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Fed rate cycle zero Nash equilibria and wartime fiscal spending pressures force term premium repricing

market25%HIT

The spread between 10-Year Treasury yields and German Bund yields will exceed 200 basis points within 30 days as Fed hawkish stance diverges from ECB emergency energy policy responses

market25%

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The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) will close above 4.75% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Assessment Window creates safe haven demand competing with inflation concerns

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