The spread between 10-Year Treasury yields and German Bund yields will exceed 200 basis points within 30 days as Fed hawkish stance diverges from ECB emergency energy policy responses

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-16 at 25% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-07-09.

Derived from: Fed Rate Cycle Pivot showing zero Nash equilibria and hawkish hold + guidance most likely outcome, European Energy Security scenario showing EU accelerated renewables focus, and wartime regime creating divergent monetary policy pressures. Current 10Y yield reference unavailable but typical wartime divergences exceed 150bp.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Jun 15106d ago
Made: May 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The 10-Year Treasury yield will trade above 4.80% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Fed rate cycle zero Nash equilibria and wartime fiscal spending pressures force term premium repricing

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10-Year Treasury yield (TNX) will trade above 4.25% on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime fiscal expansion expectations override safe-haven demand

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The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) will close above 4.75% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Assessment Window creates safe haven demand competing with inflation concerns

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The spread between 10-Year Treasury yields and German Bund yields will exceed 200 basis points within 30 days as Fed hawkish stance diverges from ECB emergency energy policy responses

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