10-Year Treasury yield (^TNX) traded above 4.25% on multiple days within the evidence window. Specific days above 4.25%: March 19 (high 4.326%, close 4.281%), March 20 (high 4.394%, close 4.391%), March 23 (high 4.396%, close 4.334%), March 24 (high 4.426%, close 4.392%), March 25 (high 4.350%, close 4.328%), March 26 (high 4.422%, close 4.416%), March 27 (high 4.484%, close 4.440%), March 30 (high 4.380%, close 4.342%), March 31 (high 4.332%, close 4.311%), April 1 (high 4.334%, close 4.319%), April 2 (high 4.362%, close 4.313%), April 6 (high 4.366%, close 4.335%), April 7 (high 4.380%, close 4.343%), April 8 (high 4.297%, close 4.291%), April 9 (high 4.321%, close 4.293%), April 10 (high 4.323%, close 4.317%), April 13 (high 4.351%, close 4.297%), April 14 (high 4.305%, close 4.256%), April 15 (high 4.293%, close 4.282%), April 16 (high 4.317%, close 4.309%). Days above 4.25%: 20+ days. Required: at least 4 days. 20 > 4, therefore threshold met.
Resolved Apr 18, 2026
Market
LONG correctTNX
10-Year Treasury yield (TNX) will trade above 4.25% on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime fiscal expansion expectations override safe-haven demand
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 41% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.351.