Alcoa (AA) will close at least 4% below its October 1 price on at least one trading day by October 31, 2026 (target below $40.32, 4% from $42.00 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-01 at 50% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-31.

Derived from: the risk-off thesis and the Bayesian US-China trade-war assessment's collapsed bargaining range. That assessment also assigns 0% escalation probability, so the trade-specific case is weak.

Probability

50%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 31in 17d

Made

Oct 1

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.