MISSBrier 0.016

SLV close 2026-07-22=53.92, close 2026-08-04(last trading day in window)=53.84, return=-0.148%. GLD close 2026-07-22=379.12, close 2026-08-04=374.16, return=-1.308%. Relative performance (SLV return - GLD return) = -0.148 - (-1.308) = +1.16%, meaning SLV actually OUTPERFORMED GLD by ~1.16%, not underperformed by 4% as predicted. Actual: 1.16% outperformance vs required -4% underperformance threshold; -1.16 < 4.0 threshold not met, and direction is opposite of predicted.

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongSLV

SLV will underperform GLD by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as capital rotates toward gold-specific safe-haven positioning over industrially-linked silver amid wartime risk-off conditions.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-22 at 13% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-05. Brier score 0.016.

Derived from: confirmed GLD safe-haven momentum (GLD >372 resolution) combined with wartime risk-off regime; silver's industrial-demand linkage is expected to lag pure monetary safe-haven flows into gold during active escalation windows (Iran nuclear Fearon failure, Hormuz 67% escalation probability).

Probability: 13%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 555d ago
Made: Jul 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

SLV (silver ETF) will close above $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market29%MISS

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) will close below $57.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market17%HIT

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) will close above $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market68%

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SLV will underperform GLD by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as capital rotates toward gold-specific safe-haven positioning over industrially-linked silver amid wartime risk-off conditions.

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