MISSBrier 0.086

Data-resolved: SLV moved from 59.82 to 59.93 (0.18%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 62. Target not reached. High was 61.71.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctSLV

SLV (silver ETF) will close above $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 29% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.086.

Knowledge bank gold safe-haven thesis and wartime risk-off regime extend into precious metals broadly; GLD has repeatedly confirmed above-threshold moves in prior windows, and silver's industrial/monetary dual role tracks gold's safe-haven bid during Iran nuclear Fearon failure (0% bargaining range).

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$62

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) will close below $57.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market17%HIT

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) will close above $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market68%

SLV will underperform GLD by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as capital rotates toward gold-specific safe-haven positioning over industrially-linked silver amid wartime risk-off conditions.

market13%MISS

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SLV (silver ETF) will close above $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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