MISSBrier 0.023

Web search for 'Red Sea Suez Canal shipping company route diversion suspension March 20-27 2026' returned 0 results within the evidence window (2026-03-20 to 2026-03-27). No announcements by major shipping companies of route diversions or operational suspensions in the Red Sea/Suez Canal were found during the prediction period. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 27, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major shipping company will announce route diversions or suspend operations in Red Sea/Suez Canal within 7 days as Red Sea Shipping Crisis game theory scenario (mixed outcome, 70% confidence) deteriorates beyond current Nash equilibrium

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 15% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-27. Brier score 0.023.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium analysis showing Iran maintains Houthi support vs US diplomatic resolution, wartime regime conditions, and Live Intelligence on shipping disruptions with historical parallels to October 7, 2023 shipping disruptions already flagged in signal convergences

Probability: 15%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 27186d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least one major shipping company will announce route diversions or suspend operations in Red Sea/Suez Canal within 7 days as Red Sea Shipping Crisis game theory scenario (mixed outcome, 70% confidence) deteriorates beyond current Nash equilibrium

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