MISSBrier 0.019

Web search for 'Turkey military operation cross-border action announcement March 20-27 2026' returned 0 results within the evidence window (2026-03-20 to 2026-03-27). No announcements of new military operations or cross-border actions by Turkey were found during the prediction period. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 27, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

Turkey will announce new military operation or cross-border action within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence (April 14) and regional escalation pressures drive defensive positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 14% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-27. Brier score 0.019.

Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction signal shows intensity 4/5 convergence April 14. Turkey positioned between multiple conflict zones (Syria, Iraq, potential Iran escalation). Base rate: major military operation launches at 2% per week, but elevated by regional tensions and celestial convergence patterns.

Probability: 14%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 27186d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Turkey will announce new military operation or cross-border action within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence (April 14) and regional escalation pressures drive defensive positioning

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