MISSBrier 0.722

Data-resolved: GLD, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-24 through 2026-10-08. Target: above 402.7. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 376.76 (2026-10-08).

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Market

LONG wrongGLD

GLD will close at least 2.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $402.70, 2.5% from $392.88 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-09. Brier score 0.722.

Gold's classic safe-haven bid is reinforced by the Fearon bargaining failure on Iran-nuclear (0% range, structurally conflict-prone) and the wartime regime designation; convergence density and Yom Kippur War historical parallel signal further support defensive gold positioning.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 86d ago
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$402.7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GLD will close above $401.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market85%MISS

GLD will close above $412 on at least one trading day within 30 days as safe-haven demand builds around the October 7 and 1973 Oil Embargo anniversary risk window.

market85%

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%MISS

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GLD will close at least 2.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $402.70, 2.5% from $392.88 at creation)

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