GLD will close above $401.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38) combined with 80% escalation risk score and Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) supports continued safe-haven gold demand; GLD trading within one typical 14d move of its lower band supports upside continuation.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 25

Price Target$401

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GLD will close at least 2.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $402.70, 2.5% from $392.88 at creation)

market85%

GLD will close above $412 on at least one trading day within 30 days as safe-haven demand builds around the October 7 and 1973 Oil Embargo anniversary risk window.

market85%

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%MISS

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GLD will close above $401.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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