FCX will close at least 3% below its October 12, 2026 price on at least one trading day by November 11, 2026 (target below $71.48, 3% from $73.69 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-12 at 59% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-11.

Derived from: the active thesis's risk-off assessment and the Bayesian US-China trade-war analysis's collapsed bargaining range. That model also assigns 0% escalation probability, making this a tentative demand-sensitive market claim.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 11in 29d
Made: Oct 12

Price Target$71.48

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as broad risk-off equity conditions and weakening copper demand expectations compress industrial metals miners (target below $67.25, 6% from $71.54 at creation)

market75%MISS

FCX will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $69.09, 5% from $72.73 at creation)

market38%MISS

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FCX will close at least 3% below its October 12, 2026 price on at least one trading day by November 11, 2026 (target below $71.48, 3% from $73.69 at creation)

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