PARTIALBrier 0.322

Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Search found general energy infrastructure damage reports but no specific Iranian announcements. The Edge Malaysia lists 'Gulf energy infrastructure damaged in Iran war' (Apr 3), confirming energy sector impacts. However, no evidence found of Iran specifically announcing suspension of oil export terminals or declaring force majeure on crude contracts during the 7-day window. While energy infrastructure was affected by conflict, Iran did not make the specific announcements predicted. Actual: 0 announcements found, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran will announce suspension of at least one major oil export terminal or declare force majeure on crude contracts within 7 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 57% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-04. Brier score 0.322.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) with no stable equilibrium. Actor intelligence confirms IRGC 'actively conducting sustained multi-wave retaliatory missile campaign against Israel and USA'. Escalation probability 20% but already exceeded given confirmed attacks on energy infrastructure. Wartime regime dynamics favor supply weaponization.

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 4178d ago
Made: Mar 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least 2 major oil companies will announce force majeure on Middle Eastern crude contracts within 7 days as Iran's sustained multi-wave missile campaign disrupts regional energy infrastructure

geopolitical49%PARTIAL

At least 2 major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries will declare force majeure on crude export contracts within 7 days as regional conflict escalation disrupts production and shipping capacity beyond diplomatic management

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Italy will announce emergency energy procurement measures or rationing protocols within 7 days as European energy crisis deepens beyond current ECB policy response capacity and wartime supply disruption forces immediate government intervention

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Iran will announce suspension of at least one major oil export terminal or declare force majeure on crude contracts within 7 days

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