PARTIALBrier 0.142

Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Search found shipping disruptions but no specific company suspension announcements. Flexport reports 'Middle East Escalation Disrupts Global Ocean and Air Freight Networks' (Apr 4). Travel Tourister reports '6 Ships Trapped, All 2026 Gulf Sailings Cancelled' (Mar 28) but this appears to be cruise ships, not commercial shipping companies. Al Jazeera mentions Strait of Hormuz issues (Mar 31). While shipping disruptions occurred, no evidence found of 3 major shipping companies making formal route suspension announcements. Actual: 0 company announcements found, Required: at least 3, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 3 major shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf route suspensions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign escalates beyond current Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 38% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-04. Brier score 0.142.

Derived from: Live intelligence shows active 'Iranian missile attack' and IRGC 'sustained multi-wave retaliatory missile campaign.' Red Sea Shipping Crisis game theory shows mixed equilibrium (70% confidence) that becomes unstable under direct state conflict. Wartime regime indicates chokepoint disruption rather than diplomatic containment.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 4178d ago
Made: Mar 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

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At least 2 major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries will declare force majeure on crude export contracts within 7 days as regional conflict escalation disrupts production and shipping capacity beyond diplomatic management

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At least 2 major Japanese corporations will announce supply chain diversification initiatives or semiconductor sourcing agreements within 7 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% and Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence drive defensive industrial positioning

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At least 3 major shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf route suspensions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign escalates beyond current Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium

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