PARTIALBrier 0.191

Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Search found energy infrastructure damage but no specific force majeure declarations by countries. The Edge Malaysia reports 'List of Gulf energy infrastructure damaged in Iran war' (Apr 3), confirming energy sector impact. However, no evidence found of any Middle Eastern oil-producing countries formally declaring force majeure on crude export contracts during the 7-day period. Energy disruptions occurred but not the specific legal/contractual action predicted. Actual: 0 force majeure declarations found, Required: at least 2, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries will declare force majeure on crude export contracts within 7 days as regional conflict escalation disrupts production and shipping capacity beyond diplomatic management

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 44% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-04. Brier score 0.191.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows 0% bargaining range (FEARON FAILURE - conflict structurally likely) with 20% escalation probability. Knowledge bank documents active IRGC missile campaigns and Strait of Hormuz targeting. Reference class policy_action/geopolitical: 39% base rate, adjusted up for confirmed military operations.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 4178d ago
Made: Mar 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

At least 3 major shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf route suspensions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign escalates beyond current Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium

geopolitical38%PARTIAL

Iran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

geopolitical33%HIT

Iran will announce suspension of at least one major oil export terminal or declare force majeure on crude contracts within 7 days

geopolitical

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At least 2 major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries will declare force majeure on crude export contracts within 7 days as regional conflict escalation disrupts production and shipping capacity beyond diplomatic management

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