PARTIALBrier 0.244

Search results from March 28 - April 4, 2026 confirm Iranian strikes on Middle East energy infrastructure including Kuwait desalination plant and oil refinery (April 3), with ongoing conflict documented by multiple sources. One force majeure declaration found: Bahrain's Bapco declared force majeure (March 31). However, extensive searches for major oil companies (ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Saudi Aramco) declaring force majeure returned zero results within the evidence window. Actual: 1 company, Required: at least 2, 1 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction correct as Iranian missile campaign did occur and did disrupt energy infrastructure.

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major oil companies will announce force majeure on Middle Eastern crude contracts within 7 days as Iran's sustained multi-wave missile campaign disrupts regional energy infrastructure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 49% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-04. Brier score 0.244.

Derived from: Actor intelligence confirms Iran IRGC conducting sustained multi-wave retaliatory strikes with 81+ documented strike waves. Live intelligence shows Iran attacks on energy infrastructure. Force majeure declarations are standard response to supply disruption. Policy action/geopolitical reference class 39% hit rate with upward adjustment for active conflict conditions.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 4178d ago
Made: Mar 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Iran will announce suspension of at least one major oil export terminal or declare force majeure on crude contracts within 7 days

geopolitical57%PARTIAL

Italy will announce emergency energy procurement measures or rationing protocols within 7 days as European energy crisis deepens beyond current ECB policy response capacity and wartime supply disruption forces immediate government intervention

geopolitical54%MISS

At least 2 major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries will declare force majeure on crude export contracts within 7 days as regional conflict escalation disrupts production and shipping capacity beyond diplomatic management

geopolitical

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At least 2 major oil companies will announce force majeure on Middle Eastern crude contracts within 7 days as Iran's sustained multi-wave missile campaign disrupts regional energy infrastructure

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