MISSBrier 0.014

Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Web search found only 2 general semiconductor industry articles - one about India's semiconductor incentives (Mar 29) and one about photoresist chemical market projections (Apr 3). No evidence of any Japanese corporations announcing specific supply chain diversification initiatives or semiconductor sourcing agreements during the 7-day window. Actual: 0 announcements found, Required: at least 2, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major Japanese corporations will announce supply chain diversification initiatives or semiconductor sourcing agreements within 7 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% and Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence drive defensive industrial positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 12% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-04. Brier score 0.014.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian analysis shows 53% escalation probability with fragile bargaining range (25%). Mars-Saturn Conjunction intensifies April 14 creating semiconductor supply vulnerability window. Actor intelligence shows China PLA maintaining aggressive operational tempo averaging 8+ sorties daily.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 4178d ago
Made: Mar 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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Iran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

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At least 3 major shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf route suspensions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign escalates beyond current Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium

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At least 2 major Japanese corporations will announce supply chain diversification initiatives or semiconductor sourcing agreements within 7 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% and Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence drive defensive industrial positioning

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