Iran’s IRGC will publicly claim responsibility for a missile or drone strike against a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf by November 4, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-05 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-04.

The Bayesian Strait of Hormuz scenario assigns 67% escalation probability, and the IRGC actor update describes an escalatory posture; neither establishes a current chokepoint closure.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 4in 22d
Made: Oct 5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China Coast Guard will use a water cannon against a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal by November 4, 2026.

geopolitical30%

Republicans will hold both the U.S. Senate and House under Polymarket market 562831’s November 4, 2026 resolution criteria.

geopolitical9%

The U.S. Treasury will announce a larger 4-week Treasury bill auction size than its October 1, 2026 auction size by November 3, 2026.

geopolitical43%

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Iran’s IRGC will publicly claim responsibility for a missile or drone strike against a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf by November 4, 2026.

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