The U.S. Treasury will announce a larger 4-week Treasury bill auction size than its October 1, 2026 auction size by November 3, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-04 at 43% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-03.

U.S. Treasury Supply Crisis game-theory outcome: front-loading short-term bills.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 3in 21d
Made: Oct 4

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce a new tariff on a Chinese-manufactured product by November 2, 2026.

geopolitical30%

A China Coast Guard vessel will enter the territorial waters surrounding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands by October 17, 2026.

geopolitical15%

Republicans will hold both the U.S. Senate and House under Polymarket market 562831’s November 4, 2026 resolution criteria.

geopolitical9%

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The U.S. Treasury will announce a larger 4-week Treasury bill auction size than its October 1, 2026 auction size by November 3, 2026.

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