Republicans will hold both the U.S. Senate and House under Polymarket market 562831’s November 4, 2026 resolution criteria.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-05 at 9% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-04.

Polymarket market 562831 prices Republican control of both chambers at 8%; the knowledge bank records pre-election U.S. redistricting, without establishing a decisive electoral advantage.

Probability: 9%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 4in 21d
Made: Oct 5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran’s IRGC will publicly claim responsibility for a missile or drone strike against a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf by November 4, 2026.

geopolitical5%

China Coast Guard will use a water cannon against a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal by November 4, 2026.

geopolitical30%

The U.S. Treasury will announce a larger 4-week Treasury bill auction size than its October 1, 2026 auction size by November 3, 2026.

geopolitical43%

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Republicans will hold both the U.S. Senate and House under Polymarket market 562831’s November 4, 2026 resolution criteria.

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