MISSBrier 0.003

Data-resolved: QQQ moved from 710.24 to 718.36 (1.14%) during 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-09. Target: below 540. Target not reached. Low was 704.66.

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongQQQ

QQQ will close below $540.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending the tech-sector risk-off move from the current $558.28 level.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-26 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-09. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (narrow 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) combined with confirmed QQQ deep-oversold technicals (RSI 28.4, MACD -3.621) and prior confirmed SOXX underperformance vs SPY on the same tech/semiconductor exposure thesis.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 937d ago
Made: Aug 26

Price Target$540

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

QQQ will close above 726.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days

market41%MISS

QQQ will fail to close above $700.00 on any trading day within 7 days, remaining below this level amid unresolved wartime risk-off conditions.

market18%MISS

QQQ will close below $705.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%HIT

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QQQ will close above $750.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as oversold RSI (28.4) triggers a technical mean-reversion bounce.

market85%HIT

QQQ will close below $540.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending the tech-sector risk-off move from the current $558.28 level.

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