QQQ will fail to close above $700.00 on any trading day within 7 days, remaining below this level amid unresolved wartime risk-off conditions.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-12 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-19. Brier score 0.034.

Derived from: risk-off market regime confirmation (F&G 38, convergence density 5.5/10) and the absence of a durable resolution to the Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range Fearon failure. The 7-day timeframe historically shows the system's best calibration (Brier 0.204), favoring a conservative ceiling call over a directional breakout prediction.

Probability

18%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Aug 1941d ago

Made

Aug 12

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.