MISSBrier 0.003

Data-resolved: QQQ moved from 691.96 to 683.55 (-1.22%) during 2026-07-24 to 2026-07-31. Target: below 545. Target not reached. Low was 661.14.

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Market

SHORT correctQQQ

QQQ will close below $545.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days as Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) compounds tech-sector wartime risk-off pressure despite the current RSI 28.4 oversold reading.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-24 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-07-31. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: QQQ technical layer (RSI 28.4, MACD -3.621, below lower Bollinger Band) combined with Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis showing fragile stability and critical china-us fracture risk; wartime regime discounts pure mean-reversion.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Jul 3160d ago
Made: Jul 24

Price Target$545

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

QQQ will fail to close above $700.00 on any trading day within 7 days, remaining below this level amid unresolved wartime risk-off conditions.

market18%MISS

QQQ will close below $540.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending the tech-sector risk-off move from the current $558.28 level.

market5%MISS

QQQ will close above 726.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days

market41%MISS

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QQQ will close below $705.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%HIT

QQQ will close below $545.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days as Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) compounds tech-sector wartime risk-off pressure despite the current RSI 28.4 oversold reading.

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