HITBrier 0.303

Early-confirmed: QQQ hit target below 705 on 2026-09-15. Current price: 710.79 (started at 714.88).

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

SHORT correctQQQ

QQQ will close below $705.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 45% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.303.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, narrow 25% bargaining range) continues to weigh on semiconductor-heavy QQQ despite oversold RSI, consistent with the prior confirmed NVDA downside move.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 281d ago
Made: Sep 14

Price Target$705

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

QQQ will close above 726.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days

market41%MISS

QQQ will close above $750.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as oversold RSI (28.4) triggers a technical mean-reversion bounce.

market85%

QQQ will close above $752.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days

market81%

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QQQ will close below $705.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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