MISSBrier 0.649

Data-resolved: QQQ, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-25 through 2026-10-02. Target: above 752. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 749.53 (2026-10-02).

Resolved Oct 3, 2026

Market

LONG correctQQQ

QQQ will close above $752.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 81% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-03. Brier score 0.649.

Red-team counterargument on RSI extremes (QQQ RSI 28.4, at lower Bollinger Band) supports a reflexive technical bounce; confidence damped below the thesis's contrarian BUY entry (45%) given wartime regime headwinds and the system's poor historical performance on 7d touch-type claims.

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Oct 212d ago
Made: Sep 25

Price Target$752

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

QQQ will close above $750.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as oversold RSI (28.4) triggers a technical mean-reversion bounce.

market85%HIT

QQQ will close below $705.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%HIT

QQQ will close below $748.00 on at least one trading day by October 22, 2026.

market55%HIT

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QQQ will close above $752.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days

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