Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-11-01 at 15% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-03.

Polymarket question 6274257 prices YES at 25%. The November 3 midterm-election signal establishes the event; the claim requires the specified outcome in all seven named states.

Probability: 15%
Timeframe: by November 3, 2026
Deadline: Nov 3in 2d
Made: Nov 1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The G20 will publish a joint leaders’ declaration from its November 15 summit by November 29, 2026.

geopolitical48%

The European Union will announce new sanctions naming at least one operator of an oil tanker carrying Russian crude by December 1, 2026.

geopolitical20%

The US Department of Commerce will publish a new export-control rule restricting shipments of advanced AI semiconductors to China by January 29, 2027.

geopolitical36%

China will announce a new central-government funding allocation explicitly earmarked for completing unfinished residential property projects by November 30, 2026.

geopolitical32%

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Track Record

Geopolitical

Pending

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-11-01 at 15% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-03.

Polymarket question 6274257 prices YES at 25%. The November 3 midterm-election signal establishes the event; the claim requires the specified outcome in all seven named states.

Probability: 15%
Timeframe: by November 3, 2026
Deadline: Nov 3in 2d
Made: Nov 1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The G20 will publish a joint leaders’ declaration from its November 15 summit by November 29, 2026.

geopolitical48%

The European Union will announce new sanctions naming at least one operator of an oil tanker carrying Russian crude by December 1, 2026.

geopolitical20%

The US Department of Commerce will publish a new export-control rule restricting shipments of advanced AI semiconductors to China by January 29, 2027.

geopolitical36%

China will announce a new central-government funding allocation explicitly earmarked for completing unfinished residential property projects by November 30, 2026.

geopolitical32%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture