The G20 will publish a joint leaders’ declaration from its November 15 summit by November 29, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-11-01 at 48% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-01.

The active-signal calendar identifies a G20 summit on November 15. The Bayesian US–China trade-war assessment finds a collapsed bargaining range, reducing confidence in a joint declaration.

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Dec 1in 30d
Made: Nov 1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The European Union will announce new sanctions naming at least one operator of an oil tanker carrying Russian crude by December 1, 2026.

geopolitical20%

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

geopolitical15%

The US Department of Commerce will publish a new export-control rule restricting shipments of advanced AI semiconductors to China by January 29, 2027.

geopolitical36%

China will announce a new central-government funding allocation explicitly earmarked for completing unfinished residential property projects by November 30, 2026.

geopolitical32%

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Track Record

Geopolitical

Pending

The G20 will publish a joint leaders’ declaration from its November 15 summit by November 29, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-11-01 at 48% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-01.

The active-signal calendar identifies a G20 summit on November 15. The Bayesian US–China trade-war assessment finds a collapsed bargaining range, reducing confidence in a joint declaration.

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Dec 1in 30d
Made: Nov 1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The European Union will announce new sanctions naming at least one operator of an oil tanker carrying Russian crude by December 1, 2026.

geopolitical20%

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

geopolitical15%

The US Department of Commerce will publish a new export-control rule restricting shipments of advanced AI semiconductors to China by January 29, 2027.

geopolitical36%

China will announce a new central-government funding allocation explicitly earmarked for completing unfinished residential property projects by November 30, 2026.

geopolitical32%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

The G20 will publish a joint leaders’ declaration from its November 15 summit by November 29, 2026.

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See the full intelligence picture

The G20 will publish a joint leaders’ declaration from its November 15 summit by November 29, 2026.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture