The European Union will announce new sanctions naming at least one operator of an oil tanker carrying Russian crude by December 1, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-11-01 at 20% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-01.

The active thesis identifies the Russia–Ukraine war as ongoing; the knowledge-bank NATO update describes continued financial commitments to Ukraine. The Bayesian Russia–Ukraine assessment also finds a 50% bargaining range, limiting conviction in additional sanctions.

Probability

20%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Dec 1in 30d

Made

Nov 1

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.