MISSBrier 0.336

Evidence: UVXY current price 49.80 (+8.26%) as of 2026-03-10. The prediction required >15% gain within 7 days (2026-03-04 to 2026-03-11), but UVXY only shows +8.26% movement, falling short of the 15% threshold by nearly half. Direction was correct (UVXY did gain) but magnitude was insufficient.

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF) will gain more than 15% within 7 days as risk-off regime intensifies with bearish technical momentum

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.336.

Derived from: Risk-off market regime with SPY RSI at 43.5 and QQQ RSI at 43.4 showing bearish technical momentum, combined with Risk Scenario 1 (Technical Breakdown Acceleration) at 25% probability

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 11202d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IEF (7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will outperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 18 as defensive rotation accelerates

market69%HIT

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will outperform the broader market (SPY) by at least 1.5% within 30 days as defensive sector rotation continues

market66%MISS

XLD (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 18 as risk-off regime pressures consumer spending sensitive sectors

market67%PARTIAL

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF) will gain more than 15% within 7 days as risk-off regime intensifies with bearish technical momentum

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture