PARTIALBrier 0.449

XLY underperformed SPY during the 14-day period ending March 18, 2026, but by only 1.54%, falling short of the predicted 2% threshold. XLY dropped from $116.39 (March 4 close) to $110.57 (March 18 close) = -5.00% return. SPY dropped from $685.13 to $661.43 = -3.46% return. Relative performance: -5.00% - (-3.46%) = -1.54% underperformance. Direction was correct (XLY did underperform SPY) but magnitude was insufficient.

Resolved Mar 19, 2026

Market

XLD (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 18 as risk-off regime pressures consumer spending sensitive sectors

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 67% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-19. Brier score 0.449.

Derived from: Market Regime assessment of risk_off with bearish technical momentum across major indices (SPY RSI at 43.5) creating sector rotation away from cyclical consumer discretionary

Probability: 67%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 18195d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF) will gain more than 15% within 7 days as risk-off regime intensifies with bearish technical momentum

market58%MISS

IEF (7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will outperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 18 as defensive rotation accelerates

market69%HIT

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will outperform the broader market (SPY) by at least 1.5% within 30 days as defensive sector rotation continues

market66%MISS

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XLD (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 18 as risk-off regime pressures consumer spending sensitive sectors

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