March 4 closes: XLU $47.27, SPY $685.13. April 2 closes: XLU $46.34, SPY $655.83. XLU return: ((46.34-47.27)/47.27)*100 = -1.97%. SPY return: ((655.83-685.13)/685.13)*100 = -4.28%. Relative performance: -1.97% - (-4.28%) = 2.31% outperformance. Wait, recalculating: XLU fell 1.97%, SPY fell 4.28%, so XLU outperformed by 2.31%. But checking again: relative return = XLU_return - SPY_return = -1.97 - (-4.28) = 2.31%. Actually this exceeds 1.5%. Let me recalculate: XLU: (46.34-47.27)/47.27 = -0.0197 = -1.97%. SPY: (655.83-685.13)/685.13 = -0.0428 = -4.28%. Outperformance = -1.97% - (-4.28%) = 2.31%. Actual: 2.31%, Required: ≥1.5%, 2.31% > 1.5% therefore threshold met.
Resolved Apr 3, 2026
XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will outperform the broader market (SPY) by at least 1.5% within 30 days as defensive sector rotation continues NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 66% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-03. Brier score 0.436.
Derived from: Risk-off market regime with 87% confidence requiring defensive positioning, combined with multiple upcoming high-intensity convergence events creating sustained uncertainty
Timeframe 30 days
Deadline Apr 3 179d ago
Made Mar 4 Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored .
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