HITBrier 0.303

Fear/Greed Index reached extreme fear territory. Multiple news sources from March 15-18, 2026 confirm Fear & Greed Index was in 'extreme fear' zone, well below the 30 threshold predicted from the starting neutral reading of 50.

Resolved Mar 18, 2026

Market

Fear/Greed Index will reach below 30 within 14 days as risk-off regime accelerates from current neutral reading of 50

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 45% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-18. Brier score 0.303.

Derived from: Current Fear/Greed Index at 50 with active thesis showing risk-off regime and bearish technical momentum across major indices

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 18195d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SPY RSI will break below 30 within 14 days, triggering the Technical Breakdown Acceleration risk scenario

market25%MISS

TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will gain more than 3% between now and March 31 as risk-off sentiment intensifies during the Taiwan Strait Tension Window

market71%MISS

SPY will close below 520 on at least 3 trading days between March 19-31 during the Vernal Equinox/Iran Assessment Window and Taiwan Strait Tension buildup

market72%HIT

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Fear/Greed Index will reach below 30 within 14 days as risk-off regime accelerates from current neutral reading of 50

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