SPY price data shows multiple closes below 520 between March 19-31: March 19 close 659.80, March 20 close 648.57, March 23 close 655.38, March 24 close 653.18, March 25 close 656.82, March 26 close 645.09, March 27 close 634.09, March 30 close 631.97. All trading days from March 19-31 had SPY closing well below 520. Actual: 10+ trading days below 520, Required: at least 3 days, 10+ > 3 therefore threshold met.
Resolved Mar 31, 2026
Market
SPY will close below 520 on at least 3 trading days between March 19-31 during the Vernal Equinox/Iran Assessment Window and Taiwan Strait Tension buildup
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 72% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.078.
Probability
72%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Mar 31182d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
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