MISSBrier 0.063

SPY RSI did not break below 30. While SPY declined significantly (from $685.13 to $661.43, -3.46% over the period), and news mentions S&P 500 being oversold, no evidence found that RSI specifically broke below 30. Market was in fear territory but RSI threshold not reached.

Resolved Mar 18, 2026

Market

SPY RSI will break below 30 within 14 days, triggering the Technical Breakdown Acceleration risk scenario

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-18. Brier score 0.063.

Derived from: Risk Scenario 1 - Technical Breakdown Acceleration with current SPY RSI at 43.5 showing bearish momentum

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 18195d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Fear/Greed Index will reach below 30 within 14 days as risk-off regime accelerates from current neutral reading of 50

market45%HIT

TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will gain more than 3% between now and March 31 as risk-off sentiment intensifies during the Taiwan Strait Tension Window

market71%MISS

SPY will close below 520 on at least 3 trading days between March 19-31 during the Vernal Equinox/Iran Assessment Window and Taiwan Strait Tension buildup

market72%HIT

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SPY RSI will break below 30 within 14 days, triggering the Technical Breakdown Acceleration risk scenario

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