MISSBrier 0.504

TLT declined during the prediction window. Start price (March 4 close): 89.15, End price (March 30 close): 86.78. Actual return: ((86.78 - 89.15) / 89.15) * 100 = -2.66%. TLT lost 2.66% instead of gaining more than 3%. Actual: -2.66%, Required: >3% gain, -2.66% < 3% therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Market

TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will gain more than 3% between now and March 31 as risk-off sentiment intensifies during the Taiwan Strait Tension Window

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 71% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.504.

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Mar 31182d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Fear/Greed Index will reach below 30 within 14 days as risk-off regime accelerates from current neutral reading of 50

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TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will gain more than 3% between now and March 31 as risk-off sentiment intensifies during the Taiwan Strait Tension Window

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